Market Headlines for March 31

March 31, 2008

€       The ECB announced that it will hold a fine-tuning, liquidity providing operation on Monday that will settle today and mature on 1 April; on Friday the ECB announced exceptional supplementary LTROs “aimed at supporting the normalisation of the functioning of the euro money market.” The ECB will conduct two €25bn supplementary 6-month LTROs on 2 April and 9 July and will also offer two smaller  3-month LTROs of €50bn on 21 May and 11 June to replace the €60bn LTROs currently in the system

€       ECB’s Weber believes “that the euro has contributed in an outstanding way to the fact that European countries have weathered the financial market turbulence over the last eight months in an unscathed and robust way” although it has been “excessively volatile” of late like other prices in many financial markets

€       ECB’s Stark said there is a clear separation between the ECB’s monetary policy stance and operations in money markets; Eurozone growth may be stronger-than-expected in Q1

$       Fed’s Plosser (voter) who opposed the recent 75 bps Fed Funds rate cut said that “inflation is a very real phenomenon” and that monetary policy is not the solution to all economic problems

$       US personal spending rose 0.1%MoM in February as expected, down from 0.4%MoM in January; personal incomes rose at a faster pace of 0.5%MoM versus +0.3%MoM previously

$       US University of Michigan final March consumer confidence was revised down to 69.5 from 70.5 previously and fell further from 70.8 in February; 1-year inflation expectations rose to 4.3% in March, which was the highest since October 2005 (+4.6%)

€       Eurozone Bloomberg retail PMI fell back into contraction territory at 48.2 in March from 52.4 in February, consistent with the 6-month moving average of 48.1

€       The German preliminary CPI for March rose 3.1%YoY versus 2.8%YoY in February, above the consensus of 2.9%YoY

£       UK GDP growth was unrevised at 0.6% in Q4 as expected, but on an annual basis the pace was revised down to 2.8% from the earlier estimate of 2.9%

£       UK current account balance rose to -£8.5bn in Q4 versus -£19.1bn in Q3 (initially -£20.0bn) due to a fall in foreign earnings on direct investment in the UK stemming from losses incurred by foreign-owned banks as a result of the financial market turmoil

 

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Forex Report March 31

March 31, 2008

Dollar selling continued last week, but the pair had a hard time clearing the 1.5850 resistance level on the way to challenging the 1.5900 all time highs.

But maybe the data expected later this week in US, especially about employment, could change everything.

If data are negative, 1.60 is highly possible.

Here is the graph for last week:

The chart at posting time is:

      

The dollar headed for its biggest quarterly loss against the euro since 2004 after inflation accelerated in the common-currency bloc, giving the region’s central bank more reason to keep interest rates unchanged while the Federal Reserve lowers borrowing costs.

The dollar earlier fell to near a record low after a preliminary European Union report showed consumer-price growth quickened to the fastest pace in almost 16 years in March.

High-yielding currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollars declined. New Zealand’s currency slipped 1.2 percent to 78.82 U.S. cents after a report also showed business confidence dropped to a 17-year low in March. The Australian dollar weakened 0.5 percent to 91.26 U.S. cents.

At 20:30 (GMT+8), quotes are:

 


EURUSD 1.5803
USDJPY 99.53
GBPUSD 1.985
USDCAD 1.0261
USDCHF 0.9948
EURCHF 1.572
EURGBP 0.7961
EURJPY 157.2823
USDTWD 30.3699
AUDUSD 0.912
NZDUSD 0.7868
USDSGD 1.3799
EURTWD 47.9921

 

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Trading Forex: Some More about Brokers

March 31, 2008

In a previous post, we described the main questions you have to ask yourself in view to choose your broker.

Here are some more details about brokers.

Before trading Forex you need to set up an account with a Forex broker. So what exactly is a broker? In simplest terms, a broker is an individual or a company that buys and sells orders according to the trader’s decisions. Brokers earn money by charging a commission or a fee for their services.

You may feel overwhelmed by the number of brokers who offer their services online. Deciding on a broker requires a little bit of research on your part, but the time spent will give you insight into the services that are available and fees charged by various brokers.

Is the Forex broker regulated?

When selecting a prospective Forex broker, find out with which regulatory agencies it is registered with. The Forex market is labeled as an “unregulated” market, and it basically is. Regulation is typically reactive, meaning only after you’ve been bamboozled out of your entire savings will something be done.

In the United States a broker should be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and a NFA member. The CFTC and NFA were made to protect the public against fraud, manipulation, and abusive trade practices.

You can verify Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registration and NFA membership status of a particular broker and check their disciplinary history by phoning NFA at (800) 621-3570 or by checking the broker/firm information section (BASIC) of NFA’s Web site at www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/.

Among the registered firms, look for those with clean regulatory records and solid financials. Stay away from non-regulated firms!

The NFA is stepping up their efforts in educating investors about retail forex trading. They’ve created a brochure fit for a Pulitzer Prize called, “Trading in the Retail Off-Exchange Foreign Currency Market”. The NFA recommends you read it before taking the forex plunge.

They’ve also developed a Forex Online Learning Program, an interactive self-directed program explaining how retail forex contracts are traded, the risks inherent in forex trading and steps individuals should take before opening a forex account. Both the brochure and the online learning program are available at no charge to the public.

Customer Service

Forex is a 24-hour market, so 24-hour support is a must! Can you contact the firm by phone, email, chat, etc.? Do the reps seem knowledgeable? The quality of support can vary drastically from broker to broker, so be sure to check them out before opening an account.

Here’s a good tip: choose several online brokers and contact their help desks. Seeing how quickly they respond to your questions can be key in gauging how they will respond to your needs. If you don’t get a speedy reply and a satisfactory answer to your question, you certainly wouldn’t want to trust them with your business.

Just be aware that as in other types of businesses, pre-sales service might be better than post-sales service.

Online Trading Platform

Most, if not all, Forex brokers allow you to trade over the Internet relatively easy. The backbone of any trading platform is their ordering system. So trading software is very important. Get a feel for the options that are available by trying out a demo account at a few online brokers.

Closely examine the broker’s screen layout. It should include:

  1. the ability to view real-time currency exchange rate quotes,
  2. an account summary showing your current account balance with realized and unrealized profit and loss, margin available, and any margin locked in open positions.

Most trading platforms are either Web based (in Java), or a client-based program you can install on your computer, and which version you choose is your personal preference:

  • Web based software is hosted on your broker’s web site. You won’t have to install any software on your own computer, and you’ll be able to log in from any computer that has an Internet connection.
  • A client-based software program, or one that you download and install, will only allow you to trade on your own computer (unless you install the program on every computer you use).

Usually, the “download and install” program runs faster, but most programs are operating system specific. For example, most brokers only offer their trading platform application to run on Microsoft Windows. If heaven forbid you are a Mac user (!), you won’t be able to install the application and will have to use your broker’s Web based or Java-based trading platform. These two (the Web or Java-based) will run on any computer since they run through your Internet browser.

Java-based software programs are preferred by most brokers, who think they are more safe and reliable. Java-based software tends to be less vulnerable to attack from viruses and hackers during transmissions than “download and install” software.

But always be sure to open a demo account and test out the broker’s platform before opening a real account!

Don’t forget your high speed Internet connection

The Forex market is a fast moving market and you will need up-to-the second information to make informed trading decisions. Make sure you have a high speed Internet connection. If you don’t, you might as well not even bother trading. Dial-up will absolutely not work for Forex! If you plan to trade online you will need a modern computer and high speed Internet connection, and we can’t stress this enough!

Bells and Whistles

Any Forex broker worth his salt should offer you real-time quotes and allow you to quickly enter and exit the market. These are minimal requirements of any trading software. Upgraded software packages are usually offered as an extra monthly fee by brokers.

Most brokers now offer integrated charting and technical analysis packages with their trading platforms. The level of integration with the trading platforms varies and is worth understanding carefully.

Mini/Micro Accounts

Most brokers offer very small “mini-accounts” and even smaller “micro-account” for as little as a couple hundred bucks. These little cute accounts are a great way to get started and test your trading skills and gain experience.

Broker Policies

Before selecting an online Forex broker, you should closely examine their features and policies. These include:

  • Available Currency Pairs
    You should confirm that the prospective broker offers, at minimum, the seven major currencies (AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, and USD).
  • Transaction Costs
    Transaction costs are calculated in pips. The lower the number of pips required per trade by the broker, the greater the profit that the trader makes. Comparing pip spreads of half dozen brokers will reveal different transaction costs. For example, the bid/ask spread for EUR/USD is usually 3 pips, but if you can find 2 pips, that’s even better.
  • Margin Requirement
    The lower the margin requirement (meaning the higher the leverage), the greater the potential for higher profits and losses. Margin percentages vary from .25% and up. Low margin requirements are great when your trades are good, but not so great when you are wrong. Be realistic about margins and remember that they swing both ways.
  • Minimum Trading Size Requirement
    The size of one lot may differ from broker to broker, spanning 1,000, 10,000, and 100,000 units. A lot consisting of 100,000 units is called a “standard” lot. A lot consisting of 10,000 units is called a “mini” lot. A lot consisting of 1,000 units is called a “micro” lot. Some brokers even offer fractional unit sizes (called odd lots) which allow you create your own unit size.
  • Rollover Charges
    Rollover charges are determined by the difference between the interest rate of the country of the base currency and the interest rates of the other country. The greater the interest rate differential between the two currencies in the currency pair, the greater the rollover charge will be. For example, when trading GBP/USD, if the British pound has the greater interest differential with the U.S. dollar, then the rollover charge for holding British pound positions would be the most expensive. On the other hand, if the Swiss Franc were to have the smallest interest differential to the U.S. dollar, then overnight charges for USD/CHF would be the least expensive of the currency pairs.
  • Margin Account Interest Rate
    Most brokers pay interest on a trader’s margin account. The interest rates normally fluctuate with the prevailing national rates. If you decide to take an extended break from trading, the money in your margin account will be accruing interest. Keep in mind that most brokers DO NOT allow you to accrue interest unless your margin requirement is at least 2% (50:1).
  • Trading Hours
    Nearly all brokers align their hours of operation to coincide with the hours of operation of the global Forex market: 5:00pm EST Sunday through 4:00pm EST Friday.

Other Policies

Be sure to scrutinize a prospective broker’s “fine print” section to be fully aware of all the nuances that a specific broker may impose on a new trader.

Finding the right broker is a critical part of the process. It’s not easy and requires some real work on your part. Don’t pick the first one that looks good to you. Keep looking and trying different demo accounts.

Summary

What to look for in an online Forex broker/dealer:

  1. Low Spreads.
    In Forex trading the ‘spread’ is the difference between the buy and sell price of any given currency pair. Lower spreads save you money.
  2. Low minimum account openings.
    For those that are new to Forex trading and for those that don’t have millions of dollars in risk capital to trade, being able to open a micro trading account with only $250 (we recommend at least $1,000) is a great feature for new traders.
  3. Instant automatic execution of your orders.
    This is very important when choosing a Forex broker. Don’t settle with a firm that re-quotes you when you click on a price or a firm that allows for price ‘slippage’. This is very important when trading for small profits. You want what we call a WYSIWYG broker! This means you want instant execution of your orders and the price you see and “click” is the price that you should get…WYSIWYG = What You See Is What You Get!
  4. Free charting and technical analysis
    Choose a broker that gives you access to the best charting and technical analysis available to active traders. Look for a broker that provides free professional charting services and allows traders to trade directly on the charts.
  5. Leverage
    Leverage can either make you super rich or super broke. Most likely, it will be the latter. As an inexperienced trader, you don’t want too much leverage. A good rule of thumb is to not use more than 100:1 leverage for Standard (100k) accounts and 200:1 for Mini (10k) accounts.

 

Opening a new online trading account with a Forex broker can be done in three simple steps:

  1. Selecting an account type
  2. Registration
  3. Activating your account

Before trading a dime of your hard earned money, you may want to think about opening demo account. Actually, open up two or three demos - why not? It’s all FREE! Try out several different brokers to get a feel for the right one for you.

Account Types

When you’re ready to open a live account, you have the choice of opening a Forex trading account under your personal name or a business name.  Also, you will have to decide whether or not you want to open a “standard” account or a “mini” account (or “micro” account if available).  Inexperienced traders or traders with a small amount of capital to trade should always open a mini account.  Only experienced traders with lots of money should open a standard account.

Always read the fine print.

Some brokers have a “managed account” option in their applications. If you want the broker to trade your account for you, pick this, but obviously you’re here to learn how to trade the Forex for yourself.  Besides, opening a managed account typically requires a pretty big minimum deposit - $25,000 or higher - and the broker also takes a portion of the profits.

Also, make sure you open a Forex spot account and not a “forwards” or “futures” account.

Registration

You will have to submit paperwork in order to open an account and the forms will vary from broker to broker. They are usually provided in PDF format and can be viewed and printed using Adobe Acrobat Reader program.

Account Activation

Once the broker has received all the necessary paperwork, you should receive an email with instructions on completing your account activation.  After these steps have been completed, you will receive a final email with your username, password, and instructions on how to fund your account.

 

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Trading Forex: Why?

March 31, 2008

There are many benefits and advantages to trading Forex.

Here are just a few reasons why so many people are choosing this market:

No commissions

No clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees. Brokers are compensated for their services through something called the bid-ask spread.

Most Forex brokers charge no commission or additional transactions fees to trade currencies online or over the phone. Combined with the tight, consistent, and fully transparent spread, Forex trading costs are lower than those of any other market. The brokers are compensated for theirs services through the bid/ask prices.

No middlemen

Spot currency trading eliminates the middlemen, and allows you to trade directly with the market responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair.

Centralized exchanges provide many advantages to the trader. However, one of the problems with any centralized exchange is the involvement of middlemen. Any party located in between the trader and the buyer or seller of the security or instrument traded will cost them money. The cost can be either in time or in fees.

Spot currency trading does away with the middlemen and allows clients to interact directly with the market-maker responsible for the pricing on a particular currency pair. Forex traders get quicker access and cheaper costs.

No fixed lot size

In the futures markets, lot or contract sizes are determined by the exchanges. A standard-size contract for silver futures is 5000 ounces.

In spot Forex, you determine your own lot size. This allows traders to participate with accounts as small as $250 (although we explain later why a $250 account is a bad idea).

Low transaction costs

The retail transaction cost (the bid/ask spread) is typically less than 0.1 percent under normal market conditions. At larger dealers, the spread could be as low as .07 percent. Of course this depends on your leverage and all will be explained later.

A 24-hour market

There is no waiting for the opening bell - from Sunday evening to Friday afternoon EST, the Forex market never sleeps. This is awesome for those who want to trade on a part-time basis, because you can choose when you want to trade–morning, noon or night.

TIME ZONE CONVERSION

MARKET OPEN GMT CLOSE GMT
Sydney 23:00 08:00
Tokyo 00:00 09:00
London 08:00 17:00
New York 13:00 22:00

Simply add or subtract your time zone to know your local open or local close.

For example, Taipei is GMT + 8 so at our local time, Sydney opens at 07:00 and closes at 16:00.

So, before New York trading closes the Sydney and Singapore markets are back open - it’s a 24 hour seamless market!

As a trader, this allows you to react to favorable or unfavorable news by trading immediately.

If important data comes in from England or Japan while the U.S. futures market is closed, the next day’s opening could be a wild ride. (Overnight markets in futures currency contracts exist, but they are thinly traded, not very liquid, and are difficult for the average investor to access).

No one can corner the market

The foreign exchange market is so huge and has so many participants that no single entity (not even a central bank) can control the market price for an extended period of time.

Leverage

In Forex trading, a small margin deposit can control a much larger total contract value. Leverage gives the trader the ability to make nice profits, and at the same time keep risk capital to a minimum. For example, Forex brokers offer 200 to 1 leverage, which means that a $50 dollar margin deposit would enable a trader to buy or sell $10,000 worth of currencies.

Similarly, with $500 dollars, one could trade with $100,000 dollars and so on.

But leverage is a double-edged sword. Without proper risk management, this high degree of leverage can lead to large losses as well as gains.

High Liquidity

Because the Forex Market is so enormous, it is also extremely liquid. This means that under normal market conditions, with a click of a mouse you can instantaneously buy and sell at will. You are never “stuck” in a trade.

You can even set your online trading platform to automatically close your position at your desired profit level (a limit order), and/or close a trade if a trade is going against you (a stop loss order).

Free “Demo” Accounts, News, Charts, and Analysis

Most online Forex brokers offer ‘demo’ accounts to practice trading, along with breaking Forex news and charting services. All free! These are very valuable resources for “poor” and SMART traders who would like to hone their trading skills with ‘play’ money before opening a live trading account and risking real money.

“Mini” and “Micro” Trading

You would think that getting started as a currency trader would cost a ton of money. The fact is, compared to trading stocks, options or futures, it doesn’t.

Online Forex brokers offer “mini” and “micro” trading accounts, some with a minimum account deposit of $300 or less. Now we’re not saying you should open an account with the bare minimum but it does makes Forex much more accessible to the average (poorer) individual who doesn’t have a lot of start-up trading capital.

Liquidity

In the spot Forex market, more than USD3 trillion is traded daily, making it the largest and most liquid market in the world. This market can absorb trading volume and transaction sizes that dwarf the capacity of any other market.

The futures market traders a puny $30 billion per day. No way to compare!

The Forex market is always liquid, meaning positions can be liquidated and stop orders executed without slippage except in extremely volatile market conditions.

Price Certainty

When trading Forex, you get rapid execution and price certainty under normal market conditions. In contrast, the futures and equities markets do not offer price certainty or instant trade execution.

Even with the advent of electronic trading and limited guarantees of execution speed, the prices for fills for futures and equities on market orders are far from certain. The prices quoted by brokers often represent the LAST trade, not necessarily the price for which the contract will be filled.

Guaranteed Limited Risk

Traders must have position limits for the purpose of risk management.  This number is set relative to the money in a trader’s account.

Risk is minimized in the spot FX market because the online capabilities of the trading platform will automatically generate a margin call if the required margin amount exceeds the available trading capital in your account.

All open positions will be closed immediately, regardless of the size or the nature of positions held within the account.

In the futures market, your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you will be liable for any resulting deficit in the account. That sucks.

Instantaneous Execution of Market Orders

Your trades are instantly executed under normal market conditions. You also have price certainty on every market order under normal market conditions.

What you click is the price you get. You’re able to execute directly off real-time streaming prices.

There’s no discrepancy between the displayed price shown on the platform and the execution price to enter your trade. Keep in mind that most brokers only guarantee stop, limit, and entry orders are only guaranteed under normal market conditions.

Fills are instantaneous most of the time, but under extraordinarily volatile market conditions order execution may experience delays.

Short-Selling without an Uptick

Unlike the equity market, there is no restriction on short selling in the currency market.

Trading opportunities exist in the currency market regardless of whether a trader is long or short, or which way the market is moving.

Since currency trading always involves buying one currency and selling another, there is no structural bias to the market. So you always have equal access to trade in a rising or falling market.

Buy/Sell programs do not control the market

How many times have you heard that “fund A” was selling “X” or buying “Z”? Rumor had it that the funds were taking profits because of the end of the financial year or because today is “triple witching day”, all as an explanation of why this stock is up or the market in general is down or positive on the session. The stock market is very susceptible to large fund buying and selling.

In spot trading, the liquidity of the Forex market makes the likelihood of any one fund or bank to control a particular currency very slim. Banks, hedge funds, governments, retail currency conversion houses and large net-worth individuals are just some of the participants in the spot currency markets where the liquidity is unprecedented.

Analysts and brokerage firms are less likely to influence the market

Have you watched TV lately? Heard about a certain Internet stock and an analyst of a prestigious brokerage firm accused of keeping its recommendations, such as “buy” when the stock was rapidly declining? It is the nature of these relationships. No matter what the government does to step in and discourage this type of activity, we have not heard the last of it.

IPO’s are big business for both the companies going public and the brokerage houses. Relationships are mutually beneficial and analysts work for the brokerage houses that need the companies as clients. That catch-22 will never disappear.

Foreign exchange, as the prime market, generates billions in revenue for the world’s banks and is a necessity of the global markets. Analysts in foreign exchange don’t drive the deal flow, they just analyze the forex market.

8,000 stocks versus 4 major currency pairs

There are approximately 4,500 stocks listed on the New York Stock exchange. Another 3,500 are listed on the NASDAQ. Which one will you trade? Got the time to stay on top of so many companies? In spot currency trading, there are dozens of currencies traded, but the majority of the market trades the 4 major pairs.  Aren’t four pairs much easier to keep an eye on than thousands of stocks?

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Oil Slips on Economic Concerns with US

March 30, 2008

World oil prices fell sharply on Friday on renewed concern that a slowdown in the US economy would dampen energy demand and on news that damage to an Iraqi pipeline was not as serious as first thought.

New York crude values dropped under US$106 a barrel, a day after spiking above US$107 when it was announced that saboteurs had attacked a pipeline in Iraq, which heightened concerns over tight global supplies of energy.

New York’s main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in May, closed down US$1.96 at US$105.62 per barrel.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for May delivery settled down US$1.23 at US$103.77.

However losses were limited by a weaker-than-expected energy stockpiles report this week in the US, the world’s biggest energy consumer, traders said.

The US government said on Wednesday that crude inventories were unchanged at 311.8 million barrels in the week ending last Friday.

 

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TWD - WON: Hard week?

March 30, 2008

The New Taiwan dollar fell the most in 21 months on Friday, paring a weekly gain, on speculation the central bank sold the currency to temper its rally to the highest level in more than a decade.

The Taiwanese currency slipped a second day after it strengthened beyond NT$30 this week for the first time since October 1997. The central bank entered the market twice on Thursday, a report from Credit Suisse Group said.

Korea’s won fell on Friday after the central bank said the nation posted a current-account deficit for a third month.

South Korea’s won fell for a third day on Friday, extending this month’s slump to 6.1 percent on the worsening current-account position. The current-account deficit was US$2.35 billion last month compared with a revised US$2.75 billion in January, the Bank of Korea said on Friday in Seoul.

The NT dollar fell 0.7 percent to NT$30.402 versus the US currency in Taipei on Friday, Taipei Forex Inc said. The decline was the biggest since June 8, 2006.

The currency still gained 0.5 percent this week, the best performer of the 10 most-active currencies in Asia outside Japan, as investors accelerated purchases of local stocks after presidential election.

 


USD Toward a New Low?

March 29, 2008

We have seen some big moves in the currency market this past week, but these fluctuations should pale in comparison to the action that we expect to see next week.

Not only are there a lot of economic data due for release from countries around the world, but Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will also be testifying before the Joint Economic Committee.

His comments as well as the ADP Employment report could set the tone for trading ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.

We continue to call for further job losses in the US economy as Wall Street and Main Street announce more layoffs.

With liquidity still a problem, we don’t expect any optimistic comments from Bernanke.

The bearish outlook for the US economy is confirmed by the latest US economic numbers. Consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan fell to a 16 year low.

Even though personal income ticked higher, spending was the weakest in 17 months. Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve admits it, 85 percent of the people surveyed by the University of Michigan already feel that the US economy is in a recession.

For these reasons, the US dollar could fall to a new record low against the Euro in the coming week.

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USD Is Celebrating the End of the Week

March 28, 2008

The sentiment extreme among EURUSD retail traders continued to settle through this past week. With positioning coming closer and closer to a flip and open interest tumbling, the euro’s long rally may be coming on its first serious correction in months.

The EURO, after hitting 1.5838 is now at 1.5768 just few minutes before been quoting around 1.58.

Here are the quotes at posting time (21.30 - GMT+8):


EURUSD 1.5768
USDJPY 99.992
GBPUSD 1.9968
USDCAD 1.0181
USDCHF 0.9977
EURCHF 1.5743
EURGBP 0.7902
EURJPY 157.8265
USDTWD 30.4869
AUDUSD 0.9193
NZDUSD 0.8021
USDSGD 1.3796
EURTWD 48.1068

 

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Stock Markets March 28 - Asia Closed

March 28, 2008

While US markets closed yesterday lower, Tokyo and Hong Kong finished higher, followed by Taipei which finally got gains after 2 negative days.

Nikkei: 12,820.47 said +215.89 (+1.71%)

Hang Seng 23,285.95 said + 621.73 (+ 2.74)

The TAIEX (see the chart) gained a light 0.20% to finish at 8,623.48.

                      

 

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Forex Headlines for March 28

March 28, 2008

Euro lower, at least for now

The US dollar strengthened across the board following the stronger than expected final Q4 GDP report. Even though, the headline number remained unchanged, personal consumption was revised upwards while core PCE and the price index were revised downwards. This was good news for a USD starving for good data.

After rallying 400 pips in 2 days, the EURUSD was due for a correction. Aside from German consumer confidence which beat expectations, there was no major Eurozone data released today. ECB officials continue to remind us that inflation risks remain to the upside, but like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, they are becoming increasingly worried about the lack of liquidity in money markets.

At posting time (17:30 - GMT+8), The EUR/USD quotes 1.5769 with a high at 1.5816 and a low at 1.5740.

Commodities currencies lower

AUD, NZD and CAD lose ground against the USD not for real reasons except for Australia which reported a drop in leading indicators.

They respectively quote: 0.9208, 0.8039 and 1.0181.

 

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